I know I said I wasn't going to get excited for the Arena Net announcement tomorrow being about Guild Wars 3, but after the latest update on Bluesky the community has spotted a 3 hiding in the artwork. Maybe a stretch and a backwards 3, but I have to admit I am setting myself up for disappointment!
What are your thoughts?
 |
| A well hidden 3? Guild Wars 3!? |
'Tis the season for Early Access apparently. After years of development, three games I've been following have announced and/or launched into Early Access. Unlike Christmas, though, this is not a time to celebrate.
 |
| John Smedley |
Reaper Actual, a John Smedley special (yes, that John Smedley), launched itself into Early Access and landed with a resounding THUD. Steam Charts topped out at 70 (yes, 70) peak concurrent players before falling to just single-digit players at any time beyond that peak. Reviews are "Very Negative," and the general consensus is, "There isn't even a game to play." What a fall from the heights of Smedley's pioneer status in the MMORPG genre.
 |
| Mark Jacobs |
Camelot Unchained, a Mark Jacobs special (yes, that Mark Jacobs), also stumbled its way into Early Access on Steam and dropped its NDA so we can finally talk about it. Not to be outdone by Reaper Actual, Camelot Unchained peaked at over 500 concurrent players and has maintained 100+ concurrent players. Reviews, like player count, edged out Reaper Actual at "Mostly Negative," with the common thread being, "The game barely works, if you can even call it a game." I have not played it yet, but I did participate in the beta previously (though that time is under NDA). I will need to look into whether my Kickstarter backing gets me access to the Steam version or not. Another sad fall for one of the pioneers of MMORPGs.
 |
| Raph Koster |
Stars Reach, a Raph Koster special (yes, that Raph Koster), also announced that it is moving into Early Access this summer. The Stars Reach playtest, which I've spent some time with, has been around for a while, and the game has changed quite a bit. Yet the Steam Charts for Stars Reach Playtest tell the sad story of single-digit peak player counts, with a prior peak of 117. Playtest access is limited, so we'll have to see how the community reacts when the game hits Early Access. I am sure Raph, who is a bedrock cornerstone of MMORPG history in my view, would like to see more players.
Of the three, Stars Reach is the most promising. There is an actual game with actual content. Reaper Actual is just a shell at this point. Camelot Unchained is mostly a tech demo built on a decades-old game engine. Stars Reach has lots of cool ideas, from building to terraforming to combat and all of the other things you'd expect from a Raph Koster online world.
However, as I stated up front, this is not a Christmas morning feeling, finally getting these long-overdue games from the pioneers of the MMORPG genre. I'll be amazed if Reaper Actual is around this time next year; I just can't see it surviving this flop. Camelot Unchained has already figured out how to exist for 13+ years, so it may have some more time left, but I imagine most folks are like me: "Really... this is what we waited 13 years for?" Stars Reach moving into Early Access makes me worry that the funding is drying up. They already ran a Kickstarter well into development, and now moving into Early Access to secure additional funding does not feel great.
The bad-news MMO bears of 2026 march on.
Arena Net is teasing a big announcement on June 5th as part of Summer Games Fest. The teaser was posted to Bluesky here and then the Summer Games Fest appearance was confirmed via Discord. This has been followed up by prominent community members receiving various teaser images. The immediate speculation is that they will announce Guild Wars 3.
While Guild Wars 3 is a possibility I want to temper my expectations as I've been burned two Summer Games Fests in a row. Two years ago it was the let down of the New World Aeternum announcement and then last year it was the assumption that ARC Raiders would shadow drop after SGF. I am NOT letting myself get swindled again this year so I am NOT expecting a Guild Wars 3 announcement. If it wasn't part of Summer Games Fest I may have a different opinion but the lesson we've learned is SGF pushes developers to hype their announcements even if they are big fat nothing burgers.
So what else could it be?
The leading backup would be another Guild Wars 2 expansion or large change to Guild Wars 2 such as a business model change. This sort of hype only to announce an expansion would be on par for my experience with Summer Games Fest the last two years. It is worth noting the teaser was posted to the Guild Wars 2 Bluesky account and not a more generic Arena Net account.
It could also be some sort of Guild Wars 1 update. They recently resurrected Guild Wars 1 with the Guild Wars Reforged launch and its been moderately successful so a big announcement for that game may fit, but still makes you wonder why they would use the Guild Wars 2 account. Maybe a cross over between Reforged and 2?
I saw some speculation in some comments about a company announcement and the possibility of Arena Net moving back under its own ownership. That would be sort of interesting but also a worrying sign knowing the state of the MMO market. It doesn't match up to having a spot in Summer Games Fest as that sort of corporate announcement would not match that audience.
Whatever it turns out to be my honest hope is it is related to MMORPGs. We need some good MMO news as its been a dumpster fire of a year for MMOs. But alas after getting burned two years in a row with Summer Games Fest I will wait for the announcements and news to come out after the fact. There is no way I am tuning in to watch.
