Guild Wars 3 Has Me Optimistic... and Slightly Worried

 Just over 16 years ago, in April 2010, we got the chance to read through the Guild Wars 2 Design Manifesto—a document I wrote about on this blog at the time. Now, in the great year of 2026, we get to do the same thing for Guild Wars 3's design philosophy. I took some time to read through ArenaNet's post and came away with a few thoughts.

ArenaNet breaks its philosophy for Guild Wars 3 into four key pillars:

• No subscription fees
• No pay-to-win
• Respecting your time and investment
• Innovating and evolving the MMORPG genre

 The "no subscription fees" pillar also means no battle passes or season passes, making Guild Wars 3's monetization model look very similar to Guild Wars 2's. The game will feature expansions and a cash shop focused on convenience items and cosmetics. One thing that wasn't addressed is whether a premium currency exchange system will exist, allowing players to trade in-game gold for premium currency. Personally, I never had major issues with Guild Wars 2's monetization, so I don't expect Guild Wars 3's approach to be a problem either.

 "No pay-to-win" is always a tricky topic because everyone's definition of "win" is different. ArenaNet would likely argue that Guild Wars 2 isn't pay-to-win, and from a pure power perspective that's probably true. You can't swipe a credit card and obtain gear that exceeds what other players can earn through gameplay.

 That said, Guild Wars 2 does allow players to purchase gold indirectly, and gold can be converted into powerful items and progression shortcuts. While that may not create a direct power advantage, it certainly saves the buyer time and effort. There are also numerous convenience items in the Guild Wars 2 store that push the boundaries a bit. Salvage-o-Matics and enhanced gathering tools are good examples. They aren't mandatory, but they become the obvious choice compared to their standard in-game counterparts. It's a fine line, and one ArenaNet will need to continue tiptoeing around carefully.

 The "respecting your time and investment" pillar boils down to ArenaNet's desire to ensure Guild Wars 3 doesn't feel like a second job. Players should be able to jump in and have fun without needing hours of preparation before meaningful gameplay begins.

 This aligns closely with how Guild Wars 2 positioned itself. In practice, though, any MMORPG requires some investment to stay engaged. If you've been away from a game for months, there's always a period of re-acclimation. And perhaps this is a controversial opinion, but I think there is still a segment of the MMORPG community looking for games that demand a little more time and commitment. Based on ArenaNet's history and the Guild Wars franchise as a whole, however, Guild Wars probably isn't the place to look for that experience.

 The final pillar, "innovating and evolving the MMORPG genre," is where I think we'll need more details from the Guild Wars 3 team before we can draw many conclusions. Based on what's been shared so far, it sounds like ArenaNet is aiming to land somewhere between Guild Wars 1's hub-and-spoke multiplayer design and Guild Wars 2's persistent open world filled with hundreds—or even thousands—of players.

 And that's where I start to get a little concerned.

 If we compare Guild Wars 3's design philosophy to Guild Wars 2's original manifesto, there's a noticeable difference in emphasis.

Guild Wars 2: (link)

The first thing you should know about Guild Wars 2 is that, this time around, there's no question that it's an MMORPG. It's an enormous, persistent, living, social world, filled with a wide variety of combat and non-combat activities.

Guild Wars 3: (link)

Guild Wars 3 lands near the middle of the MMO spectrum, which supports the goals we have for our movement and combat systems. While it fits the definition of an MMORPG significantly more than Guild Wars Reforged does, it doesn't try to replicate the large-scale gameplay pillars that so uniquely define Guild Wars 2.

 Guild Wars 2's statement practically screamed "massively multiplayer," which was a welcome shift from the more limited scale of Guild Wars 1. Guild Wars 3's statement, on the other hand, reads like a deliberate effort to reduce player density and move away from large-scale shared-world experiences.

 If you're someone like me who believes a persistent open world is one of the defining characteristics of an MMORPG, I think it's fair to be concerned.

 Many of us imagined, many years ago, that advances in technology would lead to larger worlds with more players sharing them. Instead, after all these years, we seem to be moving in the opposite direction. Worlds are becoming smaller, player counts are shrinking, and more games are settling somewhere between traditional multiplayer titles and true MMORPGs.

 Of course, it's still early. ArenaNet has only begun sharing details, and I'll be watching closely before making any sweeping declarations about where Guild Wars 3 ultimately lands on the MMO spectrum.

 Overall, I think we're off to a good start with the Guild Wars 3 team. Beta testing is expected in 2027, and a 2028 launch isn't all that far away in MMO development terms.

 In a year where we've ended development New World and Destiny 2 and seen long-in-development Kickstarter MMOs stumble or fail outright, it's refreshing to have genuine optimism about a new MMORPG from a developer with a proven track record.

 I'll certainly be keeping a close eye on Guild Wars 3. Hopefully, ArenaNet can convince me that "middle of the MMO spectrum" still leaves room for a truly massive online world.

Note: this post was edited with the help of AI (ChatGPT). The thoughts are my own.  The grammatical correctness and em dashes (—) are the AI.   

Guild Wars 3!?

 I know I said I wasn't going to get excited for the Arena Net announcement tomorrow being about Guild Wars 3, but after the latest update on Bluesky the community has spotted a 3 hiding in the artwork.  Maybe a stretch and a backwards 3, but I have to admit I am setting myself up for disappointment!

 What are your thoughts?

 

A well hidden 3?  Guild Wars 3!?

 

  

Early Access Season for John, Mark, and Raph

 'Tis the season for Early Access apparently. After years of development, three games I've been following have announced and/or launched into Early Access. Unlike Christmas, though, this is not a time to celebrate.

John Smedley

 Reaper Actual, a John Smedley special (yes, that John Smedley), launched itself into Early Access and landed with a resounding THUD. Steam Charts topped out at 70 (yes, 70) peak concurrent players before falling to just single-digit players at any time beyond that peak. Reviews are "Very Negative," and the general consensus is, "There isn't even a game to play." What a fall from the heights of Smedley's pioneer status in the MMORPG genre.

 

Mark Jacobs

 Camelot Unchained, a Mark Jacobs special (yes, that Mark Jacobs), also stumbled its way into Early Access on Steam and dropped its NDA so we can finally talk about it. Not to be outdone by Reaper Actual, Camelot Unchained peaked at over 500 concurrent players and has maintained 100+ concurrent players. Reviews, like player count, edged out Reaper Actual at "Mostly Negative," with the common thread being, "The game barely works, if you can even call it a game." I have not played it yet, but I did participate in the beta previously (though that time is under NDA). I will need to look into whether my Kickstarter backing gets me access to the Steam version or not. Another sad fall for one of the pioneers of MMORPGs.

 

Raph Koster

 

 Stars Reach, a Raph Koster special (yes, that Raph Koster), also announced that it is moving into Early Access this summer. The Stars Reach playtest, which I've spent some time with, has been around for a while, and the game has changed quite a bit. Yet the Steam Charts for Stars Reach Playtest tell the sad story of single-digit peak player counts, with a prior peak of 117. Playtest access is limited, so we'll have to see how the community reacts when the game hits Early Access. I am sure Raph, who is a bedrock cornerstone of MMORPG history in my view, would like to see more players.

 Of the three, Stars Reach is the most promising. There is an actual game with actual content. Reaper Actual is just a shell at this point. Camelot Unchained is mostly a tech demo built on a decades-old game engine. Stars Reach has lots of cool ideas, from building to terraforming to combat and all of the other things you'd expect from a Raph Koster online world.

 However, as I stated up front, this is not a Christmas morning feeling, finally getting these long-overdue games from the pioneers of the MMORPG genre. I'll be amazed if Reaper Actual is around this time next year; I just can't see it surviving this flop. Camelot Unchained has already figured out how to exist for 13+ years, so it may have some more time left, but I imagine most folks are like me: "Really... this is what we waited 13 years for?" Stars Reach moving into Early Access makes me worry that the funding is drying up. They already ran a Kickstarter well into development, and now moving into Early Access to secure additional funding does not feel great.

 The bad-news MMO bears of 2026 march on.

ArenaNet June 5th Announcement Speculation

 

 Arena Net is teasing a big announcement on June 5th as part of Summer Games Fest.  The teaser was posted to Bluesky here and then the Summer Games Fest appearance was confirmed via Discord.  This has been followed up by prominent community members receiving various teaser images. The immediate speculation is that they will announce Guild Wars 3.

 While Guild Wars 3 is a possibility I want to temper my expectations as I've been burned two Summer Games Fests in a row.  Two years ago it was the let down of the New World Aeternum announcement and then last year it was the assumption that ARC Raiders would shadow drop after SGF.  I am NOT letting myself get swindled again this year so I am NOT expecting a Guild Wars 3 announcement.  If it wasn't part of Summer Games Fest I may have a different opinion but the lesson we've learned is SGF pushes developers to hype their announcements even if they are big fat nothing burgers. 

 So what else could it be?

 The leading backup would be another Guild Wars 2 expansion or large change to Guild Wars 2 such as a business model change.  This sort of hype only to announce an expansion would be on par for my experience with Summer Games Fest the last two years.  It is worth noting the teaser was posted to the Guild Wars 2 Bluesky account and not a more generic Arena Net account.

 It could also be some sort of Guild Wars 1 update.  They recently resurrected Guild Wars 1 with the Guild Wars Reforged launch and its been moderately successful so a big announcement for that game may fit, but still makes you wonder why they would use the Guild Wars 2 account.  Maybe a cross over between Reforged and 2?

 I saw some speculation in some comments about a company announcement and the possibility of Arena Net moving back under its own ownership.  That would be sort of interesting but also a worrying sign knowing the state of the MMO market.  It doesn't match up to having a spot in Summer Games Fest as that sort of corporate announcement would not match that audience. 

 Whatever it turns out to be my honest hope is it is related to MMORPGs.  We need some good MMO news as its been a dumpster fire of a year for MMOs.  But alas after getting burned two years in a row with Summer Games Fest I will wait for the announcements and news to come out after the fact.  There is no way I am tuning in to watch.